Amire Comfort MAfariogun Adeshola OluwaseunEnilolobo Oluwafemi2026-09-082026-09-082026Amire, C. M., Afariogun, A. O. and Enilolobo, O. (2026). Flood Disasters and GDP Per Capita in Ecowas Countries: A Pooled Mean Group ARDL Analysis. Crawford Journal of Economics and Management. 3(1); 25-34.31216943https://repository.crawforduniversity.edu.ng/handle/123456789/1432This study evaluates the macroeconomic impact of flood disaster shocks on material living standards within the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) from 2000 to 2023. Operating within a Pooled Mean Group (PMG) ARDL dynamic panel framework across ten countries, the study regresses real GDP per capita against flood frequency, total persons affected, and total deaths. Long-run panel estimations reveal that aggregate material output appears insulated from disaster shocks, as shown by the insignificance of flood frequency (1.0365, p = 0.7012), total deaths (0.0996, p = 0.1257), and affected populations (0.0014, p = 0.8124). Short-run dynamics reveal acute structural disruptions, with the error correction term (ECT) registering at -0.2496 (p = 0.0048). Rather than proving economic immunity, these benign long-run coefficients validate the Schumpeterian reconstruction paradox, where forced post-disaster capital replacement temporarily inflates output metrics using newer capital vintages, masking severe qualitative human capital erosion. Consequently, the study recommends that ECOWAS macro-planners transition from short-term reconstruction funding cycles toward structural capital-upgrading resilience frameworks. Policy should prioritize safeguarding regional transportation infrastructure to minimize short-run equilibrium deviations and mitigate long-term capital stagnation.enArticle