Department of Economics

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Browsing Department of Economics by Author "Timothy Oluwalogbon Ogunseye"

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    Fiscal and Monetary Policies in Sub Saharan Africa: Implications for Sustainable Development
    (College of Business and Social Sciences, 2023-11) Timothy Oluwalogbon Ogunseye
    Since the United Nations adopted the seventeen (17) Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in 2015, Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries have started to rejig their fiscal and monetary policies to achieve the coveted goals in their different countries. Consequently, this study investigated the impact of fiscal and monetary policies on Sustainable Development (SD) of SSA economies. Twenty-one (21) SSA countries were considered in this study based on data availability. SD was proxied by three indicators, including the Human Development Index (HDI), Adjusted Net Savings (ANS) and Environmental Sustainability Index (ESI). The Macroeconomic Environment (MENV), measured by industrial sector growth was included to complete four (4) dependent variables. The explanatory variables include Monetary Policy Rate, (MPR) Exchange Rate (ER) and Money Supply (MS), Government Expenditure (GE) and Public Debt (PD). Institutional factor such as control of corruption (CO) was employed as an interactive variable with fiscal policy variables. The data, which covers the period of twenty-five (25) years (1996-2020) were culled from World Development Indicator (WDI), World Governance Indicator (WGI) and United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). The data were analysed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, Error Correction Model (ECM) and other pre and post-estimation techniques of analyses. Following the ARDL results, the study found that MPR, GE, PD, CO and government expenditure interaction with control of corruption(GE*CO) contributed significantly to HDI in the short run. Also, the bound test results confirmed the existence of long-run relationship between HDI and the explanatory variables model. Hence, ECM established that the short run disequilibrium will be corrected in the long run at 1% on HDI. Adjusted Net Savings, MPR, GE and CO were found to have significant influence. However, no long-run interactions exist among the variables in the ANS model. In the ESI model, the results show that MPR and corruption control interaction with public debt (PD*CO) have significant impact on environmental sustainability in the short run. Similarly, long-run relationship exists between the variables. The short-run disequilibrium will be corrected in the long run at 6% as indicated by ECM results. Finally, PD, CO, and corruption control interaction with government expenditure (GE*CO) are significantly related with the macroeconomic environment in the short run. Following the long-run results, the disequilibrium in the short run will be corrected in the long run at 21%. Hence, the study concluded that GE, PD, CO and MPR are pivotal to the three dimensions of sustainable development. It was therefore recommended among others that SSA countries should minimize the volume of public debts contracted locally and abroad as this could lead to high debt servicing relative to revenue. Furthermore, SSA countries should modernize anti-corruption initiatives, grant full autonomy to anti-corruption agencies and introduce strict deterrent measures against corruption. In addition, member countries should fully embrace the United Nations Convention Against Corruption Coalition (UNCAC) to strengthen whistleblowing policies and protect whistleblowers as this would help to minimize the extent of rot and corrupt practices in their respective economies