Department of Economics

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A Comparative Study of Determinants of Capital Structure of Multinational and Domestic Firms in Nigeria
(Department of Economics, College of Business and Social Sciences, Crawford University, Igbesa, Ogun State, 2023-09) Oyeneye, Kehinde Olufemi
This study investigated the determinants of capital structure of multinational corporations (MNCs) and domestic corporations (DCs) in Nigeria. The main objective is to investigate how capital structure determinant affect multinational firms and domestic firms in Nigeria. To achieve this, fifty-three non-financial firms listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) over the period of 2005 to 2019 were examined. Five firm-specific factors (leverage, profitability, tangibility, age and size), four macroeconomic factors that vary over time (GDP growth rate, Interest rate, Inflation rate and exchange rate) and four foreign macroeconomic factors that vary over time but country-specific (GDP growth rate, Interest rate, Inflation rate and exchange rate) were sourced from several editions of NSE fact book, several annual reports of included firms, Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletins and World Development Indicators. Four issues were specifically examined. The first was to determine if multinational firm\s leverage ratio differs significantly from that of domestic firms. The second issue was to investigate the effect of firm-specific factors on MNCs and DCs. The third was to determine the influence of macroeconomic factors on MNCs and DCs. Finally, the study examined the effect of home country macroeconomic factors on multinational firms only. Panel data analysis was conducted for all models using the Generalized Least Squares (GLS) technique based on period-weight and cross-section weight. The analysis was anchored on two major theories of capital structure; the dynamic trade-off theory and pecking-order theory. The result showed that leverage ratio of multinational firms differs and significantly lower than that of domestic firms. Some factors like profitability, tangibility, interest rate and size were found to be largely responsible for the difference. Based on profitability, the result further showed that domestic firms follow the theoretical prediction of trade-off theory while multinational firms follow the theoretical prediction of pecking-order theory. Interest rate and exchange rate were revealed to have similar impact on leverage ratio for both MNCs and DCs in Nigeria and are significant at per cent. In addition, the inclusion of parent-country macroeconomic factors improves the explanatory power of the model in terms higher adjusted R2. Finally, the study showed that both category of firms pursued target leverage and that both MNCs and DCs respond to deviation from target leverage at the same rate (0.29), resulting in a speed of adjustment of 3.4. Some of the major recommendations from the study is that policy makers and managers of firms should first consider the macroeconomic conditions at home and abroad before taking decision on how much debt to retain in their capital so that over exposure will not affect the firm value and eventual liquidation. In summary, the study showed that MNCs and DCs do not have the same capital structure and are influenced by firm-specific variables and macroeconomic variables differently. The government is encouraged to be aware of the effect of macroeconomic factors on leverage decision of firms and therefore should put in place policies that will make the macroeconomic conditions more favourable to MNCs and DCs financial stability.
A tripartite approach to social inclusion in selected slums in Lagos State, Nigeria
(Emerald Publishing Limited, 2022-09-28) Popogbe Oluwaseyi Omowunmi; Akinleye Simeon Oludiran; Oke David Mautin
Purpose – This study aims to examine the social inclusiveness of slum dwellers by focusing on three key institutions which are social relations, government and the labour market. The literature emphasises the activities of these three institutions as indicators of social inclusion. Also, they accurately describe the social interactions of slum inhabitants at different levels. Design/methodology/approach – Three large slums (Makoko, Ilaje and Iwaya) in Lagos State were purposively selected for this study. Using a multi-stage sampling technique, there was the first level of cluster sampling across the communities and second-level random sampling of household heads in the clusters. In all, 400 respondents were sampled but 388 valid responses were used for the analysis. Findings – The study found minimal levels of inclusion in many of the indicators. However, Makoko had a higher degree of inclusion with respect to social relations and political participation compared to the other locations. Due to the poor level of governance, the resilience of slum dwellers has waned. Research limitations/implications The study was limited to three of the largest slums in Lagos State. Moreover, due to threats of eviction in recent times, many respondents were reluctant to provide adequate answers to some of the questions asked. However, the responses gotten were adequate to provide appropriate awareness and relevant recommendations. Originality/value – The use of primary data made it possible for novel results to be generated on social inclusiveness in selected slums. The study extends the frontier of knowledge on social inclusion.
Agriculture Financing and Growth Performance in Nigeria: Pre-2000 and Post-2000 Analyses
(The Romanian Economic Journal, 2020-03) Popogbe Oluwaseyi Omowunmi; Dauda Risikat Oladoyin
This study examines the role of different types of finance in the development of the Nigerian agricultural sector and two-period (1986-2000 and 2001-2017) analyses are carried out to ascertain this effect. The study adopts the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) analytical technique. Findings show that there exists a positive and significant relationship between Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme Fund (ACGSF) and agricultural output; and industrial output and agricultural output in the pre-2000 analysis. However, only industrial output positively impacted the agricultural sector in the post-2000 analysis while two major sources of finance (ACGSF and Rural Commercial Bank Credit) negatively impacted the agricultural sector during this period. The study recommends an urgent need for effective and well-implemented disbursement of the ACGSF and rural commercial bank credit to the agricultural sector. It is also necessary to strengthen the linkage between the industrial and agricultural sectors so as to sustainably increase the productivity of the agricultural sector.
Business Related Instructions and Profit Outcome of Igbo Traders in the Building Materials Market.
(Crawford Journal of Economics and Management, 2026-03) Onochie Maxwell Prosper; Omolewa Ese Egor; Oladipupo Eunice
The study assessed the relationship between business-related instructions and profit outcomes of Igbo traders in the building materials market within Lagos and Ogun States, specifically targeting Alaba Suru market in Lagos and Ota market in Ogun state, Nigeria. It adopts cross-sectional survey research design, data were collected from 210 respondents using structured questionnaire, data generated from the respondents were analysed using the SmartPLS. The study showed a strong positive relationship between business related instructions and profit outcome of Igbo traders; the study therefore recommends that traders should prioritize business related instructional practices in their business operations to increase their profit outcomes.
Cashless Policy and Economic Activities in Developing Countries (A Case Study of Nigeria)
(2015-05-24) Amire Comfort M; Omoare E. O.
Economic activities can be described as legal activities that create and distribute utility from points of production to places of final consumption at a price. Economic activities have been classified into productive activities, commercial activities, distributive activities and service activities. Economic activities are embarked on by two separate economic agents identified as suppliers and buyers. The advent of money resulted into growth and development in economic activities. However, negative consequences associated with cash-based transactions necessitated the adoption of cashless policy. The cashless policy is a policy that encourages more electronic-based transactions. The aim of this study is to determine how some factors of cashless policy impact on economic activities. Some of these factors are availability of power, infrastructures and literacy level. Findings revealed that cashless policy has contributed to the promotion of technology enhanced businesses. In addition, constant and regular supply of electricity will aid cashless policy, thereby strengthening economic activities in Developing countries.
Determinants of Trade Openness in Western Bloc Of Africa: Do Threshold of Industrial Value Added And Institutions Matter?
(Journal of Management Studies, 2024) Idoko Suzan A.; Agbabiaka K. O.; Balogun V. A.; Olakulehin T. H.
The research work explores the determinants of trade openness in Western bloc of Africa with critical emphasis on value added by the industrial sector of the economy and quality of institutions in the bloc. With the pre estimation test of unit root test that suggested panel autoregressive distributed lag and fully modified least square for the robustness check for the period of 1996 to 2020 the result of the analysis revealed that the threshold of industrial value added, quality institutions and financial deepening as vital determinants of trade openness in the bloc. Unfortunately, the interaction of the existing institutions with the threshold of value added by the industrial sector of the economy has no impact on trade openness. Conclusion of the research work was on more development of financial deepening, quality institutions and improved value added by the industrial sectors for the bloc to engage in trading beyond primary agrarian products.
Development And Validation of a Composite Flood Impact Index (CFII) for Ecowas Countries
(Crawford Journal of Economics and Management, 2026) Amire Comfort M; Afariogun Adeshola Oluwaseun; Enilolobo Oluwafemi
Flood disasters represent a major socio-economic and environmental challenge within the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). Assessing disaster severity through individual indicators provides only a partial representation of flood impacts, as isolated metrics often fail to capture their multidimensional nature. This study developed and statistically validated the Composite Flood Impact Index (CFII) for the comparative assessment of multidimensional flood impacts across ECOWAS countries. The study covered the fifteen ECOWAS member states over the period 2000–2023 and utilized data from the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT). The CFII was constructed from flood frequency (ff), total persons affected (tpa), and total deaths (td) using Min-Max normalization and an equal-weighting aggregation framework. Statistical validation was conducted using an Independent Samples t-test. The principal findings revealed significant variation in flood impacts across the region and enabled the ranking and classification of countries into distinct vulnerability groups. Statistical validation confirmed the discriminatory capability of the CFII. The study contributes a transparent, reproducible, and standardized framework for multidimensional flood assessment. The CFII complements traditional single-indicator approaches and supports comparative flood risk assessment and evidence-informed disaster risk planning across ECOWAS.
Do Dependency Ratios Matter for Savings? Empirical Evidence from Nigeria
(Crawford Journal of Economics and Management, 2026) Olanrewaju Tajudeen Adewale; Olaniyi Oladimeji Abeeb; Adekanmbi Adewale Matthew; Opadeji Samson Adegboyega
Nigeria, like many developing countries, is experiencing significant demographic shifts marked by a youthful population and a gradually increasing aged segment. Understanding how the age composition of the population affects national savings is critical, as savings mobilization plays a key role in investment and economic growth. Given the country's rapid population growth, rising dependency ratios, and evolving labour market dynamics, this study examines the impact of population age composition on savings in Nigeria from 1983 to 2022 using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration. The study found that LAB, ODR, and YDR have a significant positive relationship with savings in the short run, whereas they exhibit a negative relationship in the long run. However, INF has a negative effect on savings both in the short run and long run. The study concluded that population age composition negatively affects savings in Nigeria. This study, therefore, recommends that the government expand access to financial services and maintain a stable macroeconomic environment by addressing inflation, which negatively impacts savings and investment capacity.
Economic Recession and Private University Performance and Sustainability In Nigeria
(African Journal of Entrepreneurship and Business Management, 2017) Idoko Suzan A.; Onochie Maxwell Prosper; Esuh Ossai-Igwe Lucky; Ighodalo David Ehizojie
The present study took advantage of the very few studies that exists in the area of private universities performance and sustainability in Nigeria. This study examined the extent to which the present economic recession in Nigeria has affected private universities performance and sustainability of in Nigeria. A quantitative data was generated from 41 respondents derived from a questionnaire distributed via self-administered procedure. The respondents were selected through convenient sampling technique from a private University located at Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria. The data gathered was analysed using the SMART partial least square. The results revealed that economic recession has effect on both the performance and sustainability of the private university examined. The study concluded that economic recession significantly affected both the performance and sustainability of the private university in Nigeria. Private universities can reduce the pressure of economic recession through tapping into other areas by a way of diversification - consultancy services and Strategic business services and alliance with industries and also try to become more aggressive in their business activities by organizing more programmes outside the mainstream academic function.
Economics of Electricity Consumption, Billing and Payment Systems in Igbesa-Agbara Development Area of Ogun State, Nigeria
(Confluence Journal of Economics and Allied Sciences, 2020) Idoko Suzan A.; Macaver O. J.; Ojo F. A.
The paper examines economics of electricity consumption, billing and payment systems in Igbesa-Agbara Local Council Development Area (LCDA) of Ogun State using Primary and secondary data respectively. The core objectives of the study were to evaluate relationship between electricity consumption and tariffs charged by power distribution companies (DisCos) and effectiveness of revenue collection and remittances by the companies The data were analysed using Pearson correlation analysis. The results upheld the null hypotheses of the study as computed Pearson r (0.024) was lower than the critical table value (0.217) and revenue collection and remittances methods by the DisCos were found sub-optimal. The paper identified contrived scarcity of prepaid meters and rent seeking by field staff of the DisCos as the core challenges of power supply and consumption in the LCDA. To overcome these challenges, the paper recommends that all electricity users in the LCDA should be identified and registered to avoid revenue leakage; prepaid meters should be provided to customers to stem rent-seeking by marketing officers of the Discos; and regular customer relationship management trainings should be organized for all Discos staff that interface with customers and the public.
Electricity Infrastructure and Economic Growth in Nigeria: Impact Analysis
(Confluence Journal of Economics and Allied Sciences, 2020) Idoko Suzan A.; Awe Emmanuel O.; Ugbaka Malachy A.; Abdulkadir Yerima Y.
This study analyzed the impact of electricity infrastructure on economic growth in Nigeria using Ordinary Least Square as method of analysis. The study revealed a positive relationship between electricity infrastructure and economic growth in Nigeria, This shows that the poor state of electricity supply in Nigeria has imposed significant costs on the business sector. The bulk of these costs relate to the firms' acquisition of very expensive backup capacity to cushion them against the even larger losses arising from frequent and long power fluctuations. Small-scale operators are more heavily affected by the infrastructure failures as they are unable to .finance the cost of backup power necessary to mitigate the impact of frequent outages. The study therefore recommended for institutional reforms of the power sector in Nigeria.
Emergence of Unemployment: An Assessment of Nigeria Directorate of Employment (NDE) Skill Intervention Programmes between (2005-2011) in Lagos State
(Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 2015) Amire Comfort M; Ngwama Justice Chidi
Generation of productive and gainful employment with decent working conditions based on skill development to absorb our growing labour force has become a critical factor in the strategy for economic development in Nigeria. This demands that the government must respond through policy interventions in setting institutional framework that will be responsible for enhancing the skill of products from different academia. Given the strategic position of Lagos State in Nigeria there is need to provide world-class vocational skills training and high quality technical education to Lagos unemployed youths . Young school leavers rush to Lagos in search of jobs. In other to achieve this target, the National Directorate of Employment (NDE) and few other institutions were created. The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between skill development and youth unemployment. In analyzing the relevance of NDE in the development of skill and creation of job in Lagos state between (2005- 2011), this paper observed that NDE has contributed significantly towards creating jobs for the unemployed youths within their capacity. However, the slow pace of NDE in responding effectively to the rate of unemployment and in attaining the millennium development goal (MDGs) will be an uphill task. The government needs to improve on their investment, and develop more institutional capacity to tackle the issue of unemployment in the country. Beyond policy initiation, strategies must be put in place for adequate implementation of the scheme towards eradicating unemployment.
Empirical analysis of the push Factors of human capital flight in Nigeria
(Emerald Publishing Limited, 2020-10-24) Popogbe Oluwaseyi Omowunmi; Adeosun Oluyemi Theophilus
Purpose – Human capital flight from Nigeria to developed countries has remained a topical issue. This paper aims to empirically analyze the push factors for the migrants who explore the various legal migrant schemes from a macro perspective. The authors examine human capital development and its role in contributing to human capital flight tomore developed counties. Design/methodology/approach – This paper is anchored on the push–pull model. Using secondary data from 1990 to 2019, the authors look at the relationship between human capital flight and variables such as life expectancy, infant mortality rate, population growth rate and Nigeria’s unemployment rate. The auto-regressive lag model (ARDL) was adopted to estimate the empirical relationship among these variables. Findings – The results from the ARDL model suggest a positive relationship exists between population growth rate and migration rate. A negative relationship was, however, observed between life expectancy and migration rate. This study also found that an increase in the infant mortality rate negatively impacted migration significantly. Therefore, an increase in infant mortality rate lowered the migration rate. Finally, an increase in the unemployment rate increased migration; however, insignificantly. Research limitations/implications – The findings from this study are limited to the push factors influencing migration out of Nigeria. These factors are also restricted to variables for which data can be derived under the study’s scope. The results of this study have far-reaching implications, especially for policymakers and citizens alike. Better human capital development through enhanced life expectancy and reduced population in Nigeria will reduce the migration rate. Therefore, this study calls for the doubling of developmental and infrastructural efforts at all levels of governance. Originality/value – This paper’s importance lies in its ability to elucidate push factors that influenced migration out of Nigeria empirically. An empirical approach to the subject matter will explain these factors and the degree to which they influence migration. This will guide the policy-making process in curbing brain drain, which is a major challenge in Nigeria.
Environmental Exposure and Maternal Mortality in Selected African Countries
(Ilorin Journal of Economic Policy, 2022-06-15) Popogbe Oluwaseyi Omowunmi; Dauda Risikat Oladoyin S; Olohunlana Olayinka Aminat
Improving maternal health is a top priority amongst other global public health issues, hence leading to the well-established literature on the factors determining maternal mortality. However, empirical evidence on the linkage between maternal mortality and environmental exposure is poorly understood in the literature. Therefore, this study seeks to contribute to the literature on the determining factors of maternal mortality by examining its linkage to environmental exposures in selected African countries. The study covers 25 selected African countries for the period between 2000 and 2016. Using the Panel Corrected Standard Error (PCSE), the study establishes inter alia: first, environmental exposures significantly aggravate maternal mortality in Africa. Second, Adolescent fertility, and access to at least one basic amenity increase mortality rates in the continent where current expenditure per capita reduces the prevalence of maternal deaths. Third, renewable energy and electricity consumption significantly reduces maternal mortality in selected African countries. Fourth, income per capita and inflationary levels are however not significant determinants of maternal mortality. The findings have a strong implication for maternal health policy in Africa. The study recommends that intensive efforts should be directed into the reduction of environmental exposures and also seek actionable ways to discourage early exposure to childbirth.
Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Inflation Rates in West Africa
(2023) Ojo, Felix Ayoola
In West African countries, the economic instability caused by inflationary pressure has prompted some concerns about the primary reasons driving inflation rates. This study examined the relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and inflation rates in 15 West African countries in the short run and long run covering a 31-year period from 1990 to 2020, with emphasis on differential effects in Anglophone and Francophone West African countries. The scope of the study is divided in geographical, contents and units of analysis. The Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) framework formed the basis for this study. The study adopted the monetarist and classical model of determinants of inflation which was remodified by incorporating inflation rate (INF), exchange rate (EXR), exchange rate volatility (EXRv), monetary policy variables, and fiscal policy variables. Panel data for all the variables were obtained from World Bank Development Indicators for the period under review. Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) estimation techniques were used for result reliability. Volatility was generated through ARCH model while CUSUM test was carried out to check for the stability of the series. The ARDL model results showed that the previous inflation rate contributed about 7% to the recent price instability in the region. It was further revealed that exchange rate fluctuations positively influenced inflation rates by about 4% in Anglophone countries in the short run with greater influence in the Francophone countries. Meanwhile, the results from non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model revealed that exchange rate depreciation contributed not less than 2% to inflation rate in the long run and was statistically significant. The findings from Anglophone countries demonstrated that the policy of the monetary authorities to increase the quantity of money in circulation, if well managed, will not result in high rate of inflation in West African countries. Findings from Francophone countries showed that money supply, economic growth rate, and public debt did not contribute to the inflationary trends in the region. However, producer price index, the degree of trade openness, exchange rate and value added triggered inflation rates in the Francophone countries within the period under review. According to the findings, exchange rate fluctuations contributed to inflationary pressures in the West African region. The study recommended that floating exchange rate regime should be maintained and supported with high productivity of farm produce for exports without damaging the consumption level of the domestic economy; and that monetary authorities in this region should employ contractionary monetary policy so as to reduce the stock of money in circulation. Monetary authorities in the region should also maintain single-digit inflation rate for price stability to be maintained. Single currency should also be adopted among the member states so as to stabilize cross-border transactions, and finally, concessions in form of subsidies should be given to domestic industries so as to enhance productivity which will reduce the prices of goods and services and thereby reduce inflation to the barest minimum.
Financial Technology and Financial Inclusion of the Residents of Ado-Odo Ota Local Government Area, Ogun State, Nigeria.
(Crawford Journal of Economics and Management, 2026) Ojo Felix Ayoola; Alade Adeoluwa Ezekiel; Thompson Temidayo Ayomikun
This study examined the effect of financial technology on financial inclusion among residents of Ado-Odo/Ota Local Government Area, Ogun State, Nigeria, focusing on mobile banking services, Point-of-Sale (POS) usage, and fintech-based digital financial services in relation to access to, usage of, and convenience of financial services. A descriptive survey research design was adopted, and data were collected through structured questionnaires administered to traders, artisans, and other residents within the study area. The data were analysed using descriptive statistics and multiple regression analysis with the aid of SPSS version 27. The findings revealed that mobile banking services have a significant positive effect on access to financial services, POS usage has a strong and significant positive effect on usage of financial services, and fintech-based digital financial services have a significant positive effect on the convenience of financial services. The study concludes that financial technology significantly enhances financial inclusion in the study area and recommends improved digital infrastructure, expansion of POS services, and promotion of fintech adoption through digital literacy programmes.
Financing Role in Structural Transformation in Nigeria
(Audoe, 2019) Popogbe Oluwaseyi Omowunmi; Oke David Mautin
In this paper, the authors examined the role of financing in structural transformation in Nigeria. The key sectors that are investigated in the transformation are the agricultural and industrial sectors. Previous studies on the Nigerian economy scarcely examined both sectors comparatively, a gap which this present study sought to fill. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) analysis was carried out. The result shows a long run relationship between financing and agricultural output as well as between financing and industrial output. However, at a glance, bank financing is more concentrated on the industrial sector than the agricultural sector. There have been increased output in the industrial sector due to increase in money supply while the Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme has promoted increase in the agricultural sector’s output. Although policies should be geared towards enabling development of the industrial sector, it is also vital to consciously drive the agricultural sector in order to increase its output production. The agricultural sector, if well-funded, has the capacity to bloom and form a strong linkage with the industrial sector. It is essential that future studies on the Nigerian economy include the service sector in the structural transformation analysis.
Fiscal and Monetary Policies in Sub Saharan Africa: Implications for Sustainable Development
(College of Business and Social Sciences, 2023-11) Timothy Oluwalogbon Ogunseye
Since the United Nations adopted the seventeen (17) Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in 2015, Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries have started to rejig their fiscal and monetary policies to achieve the coveted goals in their different countries. Consequently, this study investigated the impact of fiscal and monetary policies on Sustainable Development (SD) of SSA economies. Twenty-one (21) SSA countries were considered in this study based on data availability. SD was proxied by three indicators, including the Human Development Index (HDI), Adjusted Net Savings (ANS) and Environmental Sustainability Index (ESI). The Macroeconomic Environment (MENV), measured by industrial sector growth was included to complete four (4) dependent variables. The explanatory variables include Monetary Policy Rate, (MPR) Exchange Rate (ER) and Money Supply (MS), Government Expenditure (GE) and Public Debt (PD). Institutional factor such as control of corruption (CO) was employed as an interactive variable with fiscal policy variables. The data, which covers the period of twenty-five (25) years (1996-2020) were culled from World Development Indicator (WDI), World Governance Indicator (WGI) and United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). The data were analysed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, Error Correction Model (ECM) and other pre and post-estimation techniques of analyses. Following the ARDL results, the study found that MPR, GE, PD, CO and government expenditure interaction with control of corruption(GE*CO) contributed significantly to HDI in the short run. Also, the bound test results confirmed the existence of long-run relationship between HDI and the explanatory variables model. Hence, ECM established that the short run disequilibrium will be corrected in the long run at 1% on HDI. Adjusted Net Savings, MPR, GE and CO were found to have significant influence. However, no long-run interactions exist among the variables in the ANS model. In the ESI model, the results show that MPR and corruption control interaction with public debt (PD*CO) have significant impact on environmental sustainability in the short run. Similarly, long-run relationship exists between the variables. The short-run disequilibrium will be corrected in the long run at 6% as indicated by ECM results. Finally, PD, CO, and corruption control interaction with government expenditure (GE*CO) are significantly related with the macroeconomic environment in the short run. Following the long-run results, the disequilibrium in the short run will be corrected in the long run at 21%. Hence, the study concluded that GE, PD, CO and MPR are pivotal to the three dimensions of sustainable development. It was therefore recommended among others that SSA countries should minimize the volume of public debts contracted locally and abroad as this could lead to high debt servicing relative to revenue. Furthermore, SSA countries should modernize anti-corruption initiatives, grant full autonomy to anti-corruption agencies and introduce strict deterrent measures against corruption. In addition, member countries should fully embrace the United Nations Convention Against Corruption Coalition (UNCAC) to strengthen whistleblowing policies and protect whistleblowers as this would help to minimize the extent of rot and corrupt practices in their respective economies
Flood Disasters and GDP Per Capita in Ecowas Countries: A Pooled Mean Group ARDL Analysis
(Crawford Journal of Economics and Management, 2026) Amire Comfort M; Afariogun Adeshola Oluwaseun; Enilolobo Oluwafemi
This study evaluates the macroeconomic impact of flood disaster shocks on material living standards within the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) from 2000 to 2023. Operating within a Pooled Mean Group (PMG) ARDL dynamic panel framework across ten countries, the study regresses real GDP per capita against flood frequency, total persons affected, and total deaths. Long-run panel estimations reveal that aggregate material output appears insulated from disaster shocks, as shown by the insignificance of flood frequency (1.0365, p = 0.7012), total deaths (0.0996, p = 0.1257), and affected populations (0.0014, p = 0.8124). Short-run dynamics reveal acute structural disruptions, with the error correction term (ECT) registering at -0.2496 (p = 0.0048). Rather than proving economic immunity, these benign long-run coefficients validate the Schumpeterian reconstruction paradox, where forced post-disaster capital replacement temporarily inflates output metrics using newer capital vintages, masking severe qualitative human capital erosion. Consequently, the study recommends that ECOWAS macro-planners transition from short-term reconstruction funding cycles toward structural capital-upgrading resilience frameworks. Policy should prioritize safeguarding regional transportation infrastructure to minimize short-run equilibrium deviations and mitigate long-term capital stagnation.
Foreign Exchange Rate and Firm Survival: Evidence from Nigeria
(UNIBEN Journal of Human Resource Management, 2023) Popogbe Oluwaseyi Omowunmi; Ighodalo Ehizojie David
The role of monetary policy is crucial for the survival of the industrial sector. This study focuses on examining the relationship between foreign exchange rates and firm survival in Nigeria. The research utilizes secondary data from the World Bank Development Indicators (WDI) and the Central Bank of Nigeria's Statistical Bulletin, covering the years 1986 to 2021. Industrial output (INO) serves as a proxy for firm survival, while the independent variable is the foreign exchange rate (FEX). The stationarity of the variables was confirmed through unit root tests conducted at the level and first difference. The estimation technique employed in this study is the bounds testing cointegration approach, specifically the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The empirical model incorporates control variables such as interest rate, gross capital expenditure, and lending interest rate. The findings of the study reveal that an increase in the foreign exchange rate has a negative impact on the performance of the industrial sector. This implies that if the exchange rate continues to rise, the long-term survival of the Nigerian industry will be at risk. Hence, it is advisable to uphold a stable foreign exchange rate and facilitate its accessibility to industries in Nigeria.

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