Browsing by Author "Afariogun Adeshola Oluwaseun"

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    Development And Validation of a Composite Flood Impact Index (CFII) for Ecowas Countries
    (Crawford Journal of Economics and Management, 2026) Amire Comfort M; Afariogun Adeshola Oluwaseun; Enilolobo Oluwafemi
    Flood disasters represent a major socio-economic and environmental challenge within the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). Assessing disaster severity through individual indicators provides only a partial representation of flood impacts, as isolated metrics often fail to capture their multidimensional nature. This study developed and statistically validated the Composite Flood Impact Index (CFII) for the comparative assessment of multidimensional flood impacts across ECOWAS countries. The study covered the fifteen ECOWAS member states over the period 2000–2023 and utilized data from the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT). The CFII was constructed from flood frequency (ff), total persons affected (tpa), and total deaths (td) using Min-Max normalization and an equal-weighting aggregation framework. Statistical validation was conducted using an Independent Samples t-test. The principal findings revealed significant variation in flood impacts across the region and enabled the ranking and classification of countries into distinct vulnerability groups. Statistical validation confirmed the discriminatory capability of the CFII. The study contributes a transparent, reproducible, and standardized framework for multidimensional flood assessment. The CFII complements traditional single-indicator approaches and supports comparative flood risk assessment and evidence-informed disaster risk planning across ECOWAS.
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    Flood Disasters and GDP Per Capita in Ecowas Countries: A Pooled Mean Group ARDL Analysis
    (Crawford Journal of Economics and Management, 2026) Amire Comfort M; Afariogun Adeshola Oluwaseun; Enilolobo Oluwafemi
    This study evaluates the macroeconomic impact of flood disaster shocks on material living standards within the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) from 2000 to 2023. Operating within a Pooled Mean Group (PMG) ARDL dynamic panel framework across ten countries, the study regresses real GDP per capita against flood frequency, total persons affected, and total deaths. Long-run panel estimations reveal that aggregate material output appears insulated from disaster shocks, as shown by the insignificance of flood frequency (1.0365, p = 0.7012), total deaths (0.0996, p = 0.1257), and affected populations (0.0014, p = 0.8124). Short-run dynamics reveal acute structural disruptions, with the error correction term (ECT) registering at -0.2496 (p = 0.0048). Rather than proving economic immunity, these benign long-run coefficients validate the Schumpeterian reconstruction paradox, where forced post-disaster capital replacement temporarily inflates output metrics using newer capital vintages, masking severe qualitative human capital erosion. Consequently, the study recommends that ECOWAS macro-planners transition from short-term reconstruction funding cycles toward structural capital-upgrading resilience frameworks. Policy should prioritize safeguarding regional transportation infrastructure to minimize short-run equilibrium deviations and mitigate long-term capital stagnation.