Flood Disasters and GDP Per Capita in Ecowas Countries: A Pooled Mean Group ARDL Analysis
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Date
2026
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Crawford Journal of Economics and Management
Abstract
This study evaluates the macroeconomic impact of flood disaster shocks on material living standards within the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) from 2000 to 2023. Operating within a Pooled Mean Group (PMG) ARDL dynamic panel framework across ten countries, the study regresses real GDP per capita against flood frequency, total persons affected, and total deaths. Long-run panel estimations reveal that aggregate material output appears insulated from disaster shocks, as shown by the insignificance of flood frequency (1.0365, p = 0.7012), total deaths (0.0996, p = 0.1257), and affected populations (0.0014, p = 0.8124). Short-run dynamics reveal acute structural disruptions, with the error correction term (ECT) registering at -0.2496 (p = 0.0048). Rather than proving economic immunity, these benign long-run coefficients validate the Schumpeterian reconstruction paradox, where forced post-disaster capital replacement temporarily inflates output metrics using newer capital vintages, masking severe qualitative human capital erosion. Consequently, the study recommends that ECOWAS macro-planners transition from short-term reconstruction funding cycles toward structural capital-upgrading resilience frameworks. Policy should prioritize safeguarding regional transportation infrastructure to minimize short-run equilibrium deviations and mitigate long-term capital stagnation.
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Citation
Amire, C. M., Afariogun, A. O. and Enilolobo, O. (2026). Flood Disasters and GDP Per Capita in Ecowas Countries: A Pooled Mean Group ARDL Analysis. Crawford Journal of Economics and Management. 3(1); 25-34.