Flood Disasters and GDP Per Capita in Ecowas Countries: A Pooled Mean Group ARDL Analysis

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dc.contributor.authorAmire Comfort M
dc.contributor.authorAfariogun Adeshola Oluwaseun
dc.contributor.authorEnilolobo Oluwafemi
dc.date.accessioned2026-09-08T12:39:58Z
dc.date.available2026-09-08T12:39:58Z
dc.date.issued2026
dc.description.abstractThis study evaluates the macroeconomic impact of flood disaster shocks on material living standards within the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) from 2000 to 2023. Operating within a Pooled Mean Group (PMG) ARDL dynamic panel framework across ten countries, the study regresses real GDP per capita against flood frequency, total persons affected, and total deaths. Long-run panel estimations reveal that aggregate material output appears insulated from disaster shocks, as shown by the insignificance of flood frequency (1.0365, p = 0.7012), total deaths (0.0996, p = 0.1257), and affected populations (0.0014, p = 0.8124). Short-run dynamics reveal acute structural disruptions, with the error correction term (ECT) registering at -0.2496 (p = 0.0048). Rather than proving economic immunity, these benign long-run coefficients validate the Schumpeterian reconstruction paradox, where forced post-disaster capital replacement temporarily inflates output metrics using newer capital vintages, masking severe qualitative human capital erosion. Consequently, the study recommends that ECOWAS macro-planners transition from short-term reconstruction funding cycles toward structural capital-upgrading resilience frameworks. Policy should prioritize safeguarding regional transportation infrastructure to minimize short-run equilibrium deviations and mitigate long-term capital stagnation.
dc.identifier.citationAmire, C. M., Afariogun, A. O. and Enilolobo, O. (2026). Flood Disasters and GDP Per Capita in Ecowas Countries: A Pooled Mean Group ARDL Analysis. Crawford Journal of Economics and Management. 3(1); 25-34.
dc.identifier.issn31216943
dc.identifier.urihttps://repository.crawforduniversity.edu.ng/handle/123456789/1432
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherCrawford Journal of Economics and Management
dc.relation.ispartofseries3; 1
dc.titleFlood Disasters and GDP Per Capita in Ecowas Countries: A Pooled Mean Group ARDL Analysis
dc.typeArticle
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